Chatham House experts highlight the crunch moments and potential flashpoints in the year ahead.
United States: Will Trump pitch a grand bargain with Beijing?
Once Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20, he will have choices to make and the authority to make them. Top of the list are America’s fraught, geopolitical relations with Russia and China.
On the former, the question will be what relationship to play for with Russia and Vladimir Putin. The American position on Ukraine will flow from this. It is anticipated that Trump will push a land-for-peace deal with Ukraine, but see if he tries – like many presidents in their first year – to reset the relationship with Russia, either by pressing for strategic stability talks or, more consequentially, for a plan for Europe’s security that integrates Russia. While arms-control talks would be welcomed by many, expect resistance if Trump attempts a more ambitious resetting of the relationship.
China may be the less urgent relationship, but for America, the global economy and international stability, it is the more important one. Will Trump follow through on his threat of extra tariffs on Chinese imports and lean in to the defence of Taiwan, or will he attempt a grand bargain that sees China leverage its partnership with Russia to secure a deal in Ukraine, in return for a reduced US commitment to Taiwan?
Such a deal may leave relations between China, Russia and America in a better place but at a high price. And given current geopolitics, any calm would likely be fleeting. If Trump does attempt such a radical reordering, it would indicate few guardrails remain regarding foreign policy and presidential power – and many Americans, including in his own party, would not be happy.
Leslie Vinjamuri, director, US and the Americas Programme
Topics
Regions
- Eurozone
- Israel and Palestine
- Ukraine
- China
- United States of America
- Russia
- East Africa
- Central Africa
- West Africa
- Horn of Africa
- Korean peninsula
- South Asia
- Southeast Asia
Asia and the Pacific: China braces itself for American tariffs
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will loom over Asia in 2025, as the region’s leaders consider how far he will pursue a renewed trade war with China and what impact his unpredictable administration will have on key flashpoints: the South China Sea, Taiwan and North Korea.
Flitting between transactional and confrontational, President Trump could exacerbate existing tensions with Beijing over Taiwan and the South China Sea or, equally, sell out US partners and allies in Asia. While South Korea is experiencing domestic ructions, the North Korean challenge is intensifying. Kim Jong Un is more belligerent than ever, and sending thousands of his loyal troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine while developing nuclear weapons at home.